Marijuana and the War on Drugs: Where Will it All End?

By Susan C. Walker
www.elliottwave.com

Once something is prohibited -- such as alcohol in the 1920s-1930s and marijuana today -- huge government resources go into enforcement. In turn, the traffickers become increasingly inventive. Take, for instance, the latest method for smuggling marijuana into the United States from Mexico.

Now that border patrols in California and Arizona have made it more difficult to smuggle tons of marijuana into the United States, drug cartels have turned to ultralight aircraft. Yes, those small motorized hang-gliders that vacation resorts rent so that their guests can see the local sights from up in the air. Watch out, though, if you hear the buzz late at night near a field in California. If you're unlucky, a 250-pound bale of marijuana could land on you. The Los Angeles Times reports:

The ultralight activity is seen as strong evidence that smugglers are having an increasingly difficult time getting marijuana over land crossings. Authorities noticed a surge in flights in Imperial County after newly erected fencing along California's southeast corner blocked smugglers from crossing desert dunes in all-terrain vehicles….

"We're trained to look down and at the fence. Now we have to look up for tell-tale signs of ultralight traffic," said Roy D. Villarreal, deputy chief patrol agent of the El Centro sector in the Imperial Valley.

(Los Angeles Times, May 19, Ultralight Aircraft Now Ferrying Drugs Across U.S.-Mexico Border)

Where will it end? Euan Wilson of The Socionomics Institute studied the alcohol and drug prohibition eras to see if there were similarities. His research includes the role of social mood during prohibition, and provides a fascinating look at when and why society sanctions drugs -- and when society decides enough is enough. Here's the conclusion he came to in "The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition," published in the July 2009 issue of The Socionomist:

Marijuana and the War on Drugs: How It All Might End
The story of Prohibition after the 1929 stock market peak is a model for how the current crisis in Mexico and the U.S. is likely to play out. In the late 1920s and early 1930s, Chicago streets ran red with the blood of victims connected to the alcohol industry. In a quest for territorial control, gangs expanded bootlegging operations beyond Chicago, with Capone’s reach eventually extending into Florida. As bootlegging routes grew, so did associated violence. A few defenders of Prohibition steadfastly supported The Untouchables, but in time, the majority of the public simply grew fed up with the criminal warring and the corruption, violence, and death associated with law enforcement efforts. In the end, public mood demanded change and Prohibition was repealed.

It appears inevitable, then, that drug-related carnage — and public disgust with it — will spread as well. As the violence increasingly affects the U.S., the American government will counter public anxiety with assurances that everything is under control and that the situation is contained to a few small areas. Southern regions of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas will likely see the same violence that is now plaguing Mexican states.

Some will argue to step up the Drug War and start mass executions. But as mood falls and the death toll among Americans rises, the public will become open to what now may seem like radical ideas about how best to deal with marijuana use in society. The dialogue about marijuana decriminalization will cease to center on morality and instead will shift to stopping the kidnapping, murder, brutality and bloodshed. Finally, the people and their government will end the Drug War.

Prohibition also provides perspective on what society will look like after marijuana is decriminalized. Following the repeal of the 18th Amendment, organized crime and the violence that came with it almost completely disappeared as black market vendors lost the one tool that enabled them to maintain their monopoly and get unimaginably rich: illegality.

In the two years since Wilson wrote this article, Mexico has suffered hundreds of deaths related to drug smuggling, while more U.S. communities have decided that medical marijuana is acceptable. The takeaway message from this story in The Socionomist is that the same social mood that drives the stock market also plays a significant role in popular attitudes regarding the prohibitions against drugs and alcohol.