From the Sinaloa truce, to the empowerment of the CJNG

Translated by Otis B Fly-Wheel for Borderland Beat from a Zetatijuana article

Subject Matter: Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG
Recommendation: No prior subject matter knowledge required

In the study of the project Justice in Mexico at the University of San Diego, the struggle between the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel has been analyzed, for control of the zones and routes for narco trafficking has led to a 20% increase in homicides in 2016. Augmented by the poor socio-economic conditions in Mexico and the heroin epidemic in the United States, investigators urge that the drugs problem is a problem of public health.

Reporter: Ines Garcia Ramos
The dispute for the territory controlled by Joaquin "El Chapo Guzman" against the CJNG in alliance with other organizations against the Sinaloa Cartel in different regions of Mexico, is one of the causes for the rise in homicides in the last few years.

David Shirk, Director of the program Justice in Mexico, spoke with Zeta about this and other announcements in the annual report "Violence and narco trafficking in Mexico", after his presentation in the University of San Diego.

Justice in Mexico started in 2001 as an investigative initiative to study the systems of justice in Mexico. Since then it has evolved into a study of public politics that could reduce the levels of crimes and violence.




The analysis carried out by Shirk with two investigators of the program, Octavio Rodriguez Ferreria and Kimberly Heinle, reviewed data bases corresponding to 2016 to explain the augmentation in crime levels and in particular homicides.

"We observed a substantive increase of almost 20% in homicides over the whole country, in areas linked to narco trafficking, for example, in Tijuana and the Pacific Coast.", detailed the Professor from the University of San Diego.

For the investigator, the second detention of "El Chapo", in January of 2016, fired up the level of violence, in the plazas that are controlled by narco traffickers, with disputes.

"There are reports that indicate that members of his cartel and that of the CJNG are starting to contest these spaces and routes for narco trafficking."

There the emphasis of the study is on the failed strategy that was started by the Mexican Government to debilitate the Cartels, to decapitate its principal leaders, as occurred with El Chapo, Osiel Cardenas and Benjamin Arellano Felix.
"The result was a grave conflict between different organizations intent on taking plazas, expressed Shirk from the Croc Institute for Peace and Justice at the University of San Diego.

The prognostics of Shirk detected, in the data bases, interviews with functionaries, monitoring of newspapers, and the interchange of information with other organizations that" we believe that the wave of violence will continue until these criminal groups establish and equilibrium, or a monopoly or a pact."

The specialist included about public security in Mexico that, "we are not ruling out that an alliance between the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG, could implicate a significant reduction in the violence."

CJNG the new "Chapos"

In 2010, after the arrests of Benjamin Arellano Felix, Osiel Cardenas, Vincente Carrillo Fuentes and the execution of Arturo Beltran Leyva, the Sinaloa Cartel consolidated their criminal organization to obtain major control of narco trafficking operations in the whole of Mexico as well as the United States.

This, explains the study, provoked the violence that descended gradually in the period known as the Sinaloa truce, or the Sinaloa peace, this explains why Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez at the lowest levels of homicide between 2011 and 2014.

This stage doesn't only implicate a fortified position of the organization led by El Chapo Guzman and Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, but also its implicit pacts or explicit pacts with functionaries to continue control of its plazas.

However, with the first recapture of El Chapo Guzman, in February of 2014, there was an observed change in respect of the homicides in some zones of control, among them, Tijuana.

For the Doctor, David Shirk, the second detention of the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, occurred in January of 2016, after he fled from the maximum security "Altiplano" prison in 2015, as well as when he was transferred to the Ciudad Juarez prison, in May of 2016, debilitated the stature of the capo. This provoked strong confrontations in the Pacific Coast territories.

This was because after his arrest, members of the Sinaloa Cartel were able to ally themselves with the BLO and the CJNG. Although the CJNG is based in Jalisco, it has a presence in Baja California, Chihuahua, Colima, Michoacan, Guanajuato, Nayarit, Guerrero, Morelos, Veracruz and Mexico City.

The organization led by Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, El Mencho, details the study, will continue to consolidate in the future. Their alliances, for example, with the remnants of the CAF in Tijauana and the Juarez Cartel in Chihuahua, have demonstrated their capacity for strength and financing, which gives them the possibility to position themselves as the new "Chapos", says the expert.

The government is not controlling the violence

The report not only takes into account the dynamics of the black market and the strategies, but the actions and reactions of the cartels during their expansions and or defense of territories, as triggering the violence in Mexico.

In one of its sections, the researchers analyze the socio-economic factors that coincided in 2016, the second year in which the number of intentional homicides in the country rose.

These include the devaluation of the pesos, the stagnation of economic growth, the few job and educational opportunities, uncertainty and financial instability and the terrible levels of approval of the President of the Republic, Enrique Pena Nieto.

In 2016, the report indicates that the five states with the highest number of intentional homicides are Guerrero with 2,123, State of Mexico with 2053, Michoacan with 1887, Veracruz with 1258, and Colima with 1232. They were followed by Baja California with 1179 and Sinaloa with 1110 and Jalisco with 1500.

It highlights how that year, with 871 Felony homicides, Tijuana had the third highest number in the last ten years, with 871. While from January 1st to April 20th of 2017, there were 417 executions the highest number in the last ten years in this period.

In conclusion, the report stresses that " the effort to improve public security in Mexico is not accurate and simple, since even the reduction in violence seen in previous years ( 2012 - 2014 ) can not be directly attributed to compliance with the law."

As part of public policies to reduce violence, the program raises not only the training and professionalization of police corporations, but also work on accountability as the basis for the justice system.

The heroin epidemic and the legalization debate

According to the study, 591,000 people over the age of 12 acknowledged having used heroin in the United States during 2015, this triggered 12,990 deaths from overdoses of this drug.

The dramatic increase, the researchers explain, is related to two reasons. On the one hand, more doctors prescribe opiates to reduce pain in patients, and on the other hand, the production of heroin by cartels in Mexico.

Since these cartels do not have capacity in the production chains as broad as those of their predecessors in South America, " for a few organizations like the CJNG, it is much easier to enter the heroin market as Mexico cannot produce enough", says Shirk.

The solution, he says, is not to fight the Cartels from the Government, since with the large amounts of money in the hands of criminals like El Mayo and El Mencho, it is impossible to prevent Governmental collusion with narcos to provide them with protection.

"The key is to reduce the amount of money the organizations can generate, and the best way to do it is to stop using drugs in the United States or legalize them", he said.

Since the Merida initiative was strengthened in 2008, the United States has provided 2.6 billion dollars in support of public safety institutions in Mexico to combat drugs. However, the specialist says; "We have to have a conversation between Mexico, the United States and other countries that suffer from this endless war on drugs to identify a strategy that turns what has been treated as public security problem, as a problem of Public Health".

Seven of the 59 entities that make up the American Union have already legalized the use of marijuana, but Shirk indicates that this drug only makes up 20% of the drugs trafficked from Mexico.

For the researcher, the solution must cover other factors such as the conditions that lead to the consumption of these drugs, especially in the North and Centre of the Country, and appoint it as a public health policy.

We have to think of broader solutions than sending cops to stop people who sell drugs. It is now a solution too simplified as we have seen over the last 50 years, that it has not worked and how Mexico pays the price of the consumption of these drugs in the United States, Its just not fair.

Original article in Spanish at Zetatijuana