Cut the body of the monster of organized crime, not just the head: Shirk

Translated by Otis B Fly-Wheel for Borderland Beat from a Zetatijuana article

Subject Matter: Mexico and organized crime
Recommendation: No prior subject matter knowledge required

A report from the University of San Diego reveals the failed strategy of the government of Enrique Peña Nieto in the fight against organized crime by attacking only the drug lords. Given the empowerment of the CJNG, the resurgence of Tijuana as the city with the most homicides in the country and an uncertain electoral landscape, experts issue their recommendations

Reporter: Ines Garcia Ramos
The Mexican government seems to have a unique strategy to fight organized crime: cutting off the heads of the main capos, which has not only has failed, but has left a country of death.

This is stated in the report " Drug Violence in Mexico, " conducted by Justice in Mexico , which explores the roots and consequences of 2017, the year with the highest number of intentional homicides committed in Mexico and which placed Tijuana as the city with the most murders in the country.

Justice in Mexico is a research program hosted at the University of San Diego, focused on designing strategies to improve citizen security, strengthen the rule of law and protect human rights in Mexico.

In this installment, Laura Calderón, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira and David Shirk explain how the empowerment of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), the fragmentation and weakening of the Sinaloa Cartel unleashed the worst wave of homicides seen in the country.




They also analyze the circumstances of the violence focused on drug trafficking corridors, the scenario facing the presidential elections of 2018 and a possible change in bi national cooperation in matters of public security between Mexico and the United States.

In an interview with ZETA , David Shirk, director of Justice in Mexico and one of the authors of the report, explains: "If they want to stop or face organized crime, you have to cut the whole body of the monster, not just the head."

64 HOMICIDES A DAY WITH EPN

From the outset, the researchers address how in the first five years of Enrique Peña Nieto's administration (2012-2017) an average of 23 thousand 293 homicides per year have been recorded, or 64 murders per day, which represents an increase of 20 percent with respect to the six-year term of Felipe Calderón.

Specifically, 2017 closed with 27,734 people murdered, 19% more than in 2016, and the State that registered the highest increase in homicides was Baja California, the study indicates. When talking about municipalities, more homicides occurred in Tijuana than in any other city in Mexico.

However, when studying not the figure by itself, but in relation to the percentage, the study reveals that the entities with the greatest increase are Nayarit, with 554% more homicides, and Baja California Sur with 192%.

"The deterioration of security conditions in the last three years has been an important setback for President Enrique Peña Nieto, who promised to reduce violence. In addition, Peña Nieto's low levels of approval during his first five years as President are due, in part, to the perception of handling cases of crime, violence and corruption, "the report said.

The research also compares this violence to other countries in Latin America, and while there are nations with the highest number of homicides, Mexico exceeds the total number of homicides in Belize, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Jamaica.

In addition, the number of homicides in Mexico exceeds that of the United States, a country with almost three times the population. The comparisons are a sample of how Mexico concentrates a large part of the violence, since one in every eight homicides in the Western Hemisphere was committed in this country.

Registries of Justice in Mexico also indicate that, in 2017, 75% of homicide victims are men, while the average age of the victims is 33 years.

According to the study, between a third and a half of these homicides are attributed to drug trafficking cartels and other organized crime groups, since they have characteristics such as executions, multiple victims and attackers, the use of high-caliber weapons, messages left by the perpetrators, dismemberment, beheading, clandestine graves, among others.

On the other hand, the researchers point out: "There is a concern that, given the high levels of crime in Mexico, candidates will feel pressured to take a stand on these issues and may be targets of violence" with respect to this year's elections.

TIJUANA BECOMES THE MOST VIOLENT CITY

In the most violent year in Mexico, one in every 20 homicides in Mexico occurred in Tijuana, concludes the report " The Resurgence of Criminal Violence in Tijuana " by the authors Jaime Arredondo Sanchez Lira, Zulia Orozco, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira and David Shirk

This report is taken up in the national investigation of violence to explain how Tijuana returned to be the city with the highest number of homicides in the country, a place it had in 2007.

In 2017, records from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System indicated that in this city, 1,780 people were murdered, that is, an increase of 86% in just one year.

When the researchers paid attention to the geographical areas where there were more homicides, they located several clusters of violence: East Zone (which includes the La Presa, La Presa Este and Otay delegations), as well as Sánchez Taboada and Centro.

Only 20% of the homicides were concentrated in 850 colonias, the main ones being Camino Verde with 75, Zona Norte with 49 and Centro with 32.

According to the researchers, the social consequences of this violence "has affected young and poor men in areas of middle and lower class, who are the main perpetrators and targets of these murders and who are often the product of what sociologists and criminologists they call 'social disorganization', due to the presence of family violence, substance abuse, lack of educational opportunities, among others. "

Therefore, as part of their recommendations, they suggest a program that addresses social and economic marginalization through development programs, implementing community policies in the most violent areas of the city, and even other measures such as improving public transportation and accessibility. to the colonies, in addition to the recovery and creation of public spaces.

JOURNALISTS AND MAYORS, THE FAVORITE TARGETS OF NARCO

At the national level, investigators identified two main targets of drug trafficking: journalists, three times more likely to be killed than other occupations in society in general, and mayors, 12 times more likely to be victims of murder.

The study details that from 2005 to 2017, 152 municipal presidents, either as candidates, in functions or even former mayors, have been murdered in the country. In geographical terms, the mayors riddled with bullets are on the other extreme than executions for organized crime.

While homicides have been concentrated in two main narco-trafficking corridors: the northern border, composed of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas; as well as in the Pacific: Sinaloa, Nayarit, Michoacán and Guerrero. The largest number of murdered politicians is concentrated in southern states such as Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Michoacán.

Of the 21 homicides of mayors registered in 2017 (nine were in office), eight belonged to the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), twenty were killed by gunshots and one of their throats cut.

THE EMPOWERMENT OF THE CJNG

The study also retakes the empowerment of the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) as one of the premises to explain the resurgence of violence in Mexico. Researchers had already warned of this from 2016 and 2017, when it became more evident the strengthening of this organization led by Ruben Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, better known as "El Mencho".

The CJNG "has taken advantage of the power gaps resulting from the breakdown of structures of organized crime leaders," specifically the blows to La Familia Michoacana, Los Caballeros Templarios, Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Cartel, which have created opportunities for the CJNG to expand and grow.

These proposals are taken from the publication " The New Generation: The Threat of Emerging Organized Crime in Mexico", a report signed by Lucy de la Rosa and David Shirk, which warns that the CJNG has reached a level of power equal to or greater than that of the Sinaloa Cartel.

With a presence in 21 states of the country, including Mexico City, the CJNG has been able to strengthen the capture and re-apprehension of the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, a direct consequence of the strategy of arresting capos, " what has contributed to the fragmentation, transformation and diversification of organized crime groups in Mexico and the entry to areas such as the trafficking of heroin, methamphetamines and other synthetic drugs. "

In the same way, the researchers ponder Jalisco's strategies, such as the alliances they form with local groups. One of the examples was his approach with the Arellano Felix Cartel in Tijuana to use this point of transfer and fight the cells of Sinaloa.

CUTTING THE HEAD OF A CÁRTEL, IS COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE

The study insists that the strategy of capturing only drug lords is counterproductive, not only because it does not dismantle the attacked organization, but because it allows the proliferation of cells that manage to separate from the cartel and become rivals.

Therefore, instead of continuing with this strategy, the experts recommend strengthening the capacity of the public security and justice corporations to conduct long-term and wide-ranging investigations that allow for more effective criminal proceedings, including the imputation of corrupt politicians and entrepreneurs linked to money laundering.

At the same time, that the government contributes with greater educational and labor opportunities for those who are at the bottom of the economic spectrum, which often leads them to get involved in violent criminal activities, especially in men.

In addition to this, the researchers insist that the government develop better monitoring of violence related to organized crime, improve judicial processes, work on special measures to address political violence and reinvigorate anti-corruption efforts, in addition to addressing the drug problem as a public health issue, among other recommendations.

"There is evidence that the crisis of violence that Mexico has gone through has had a cost in growth, investments, in reducing the viability of the market and compromises the security and integrity of officials, threatens journalism and freedom of expression, while reducing trust in institutions, which results in and undermines democratic governance in Mexico, "the study concludes.

"The strategy of hitting the bosses has had very negative effects, not contemplated. We need to stop not only the capo of an organization, but have all the evidence and research and all the necessary capacity to search for various elements at all levels of the organization, if not, the capo goes and the new one goes up; or worse, it fragments and they fight between themselves, "David Shirk, director of Justice in Mexico , warns in an interview .

The expert in public security points out that before the election of July 1, in which more than 3 thousand public offices will be elected, "if we see changes at the federal, state and local levels, those changes will definitely break some ties and agreements established with organized crime and may give rise to more problems of violence. "

Finally, he thinks about the relationship between Mexico and the United States to fight organized crime: "I am worried that in the coming years, if things continue as they did in the last year, we will see less coordination and more difficulty for the two countries. They need to work together. "