“If there’s not a change in Mexico with Andres Manuel, then God help us.”

OP/ED by DD for Borderland Beat

There can be no doubting that a major shift has taken place in Mexican politics.  

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (better known by his initials as AMLO) is no longer one of the four candidates for President of Mexico, he is President Elect AMLO.  Some are calling his election a "landslide".  I think it is bigger than that - it was a 'Tsunami'.  He won by over 53% of the vote, twice as many as his nearest competitor, the Pan candidate, and the PRI candidate only got 14%.  

A map showing his election victories state by state drives home the immensity of his victory.  Moreno is the party that AMLO created just 4 years ago and it's color is purple.

In a sea of maroon lies a single, small island of blue: Guanajuato, the only state in Mexico where Andrés Manuel López Obrador didn’t win the popular vote in Sunday’s presidential election.

Winning the popular vote in all but one state and the mandate it will give him in office is not the only thing that will give him the power to achieve his goals. 

Moreno and his political allies called "Together  We Will Make History" coalition picked the right name for their coalition.  In addition to all their wins, thanks to the coalition  for the first time the Mexican parliament has parity between men and women.


They will hold 303 of 500 seats in the lower house of the federal Congress and 70 of 128 in the Senate.  They won 4 of the 7 Governor's seats that were on the ballots as well as  congressional majorities in 12 states and countless mayoral and other municipal positions.

That means for the first time in 24 years, the president of Mexico will have a legislative majority.

The Morena-led coalition’s main congressional opposition will come from the For Mexico in Front alliance — which is led by the National Action Party (PAN) and nominated Ricardo Anaya for the presidency — but its capacity to spoil AMLO's  agenda will be limited by having just 140 of the 500  and 38 or the 128 seats in the Senate.  

While there is no doubt that a range of factors contributed to the PRI’s fall from grace (winning only 14% of Presidential vote) , perhaps one reason— with which the party’s name has also far too often been synonymous — outweighs all others: "corruption."

One of the victories that surprised me the most was Moreno winning in Mexico state Atlacomulco, the birthplace of President Enrique Peña Nieto and a political cradle of other noted Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) politicians.  But more importantly it is the home base of a informal group of oligarchs and extremely wealthy elites known simply as the "Atlacomulco Group" that have dominated PRI (and thereby Mexican politics) and much of the Mexican economy for decades.  (a good discussion of who is in the group and what they have done is in the BB story here).  (you can bet the government contracts awarded to members of this group will be examined for being illicit or illegal).  The UN has accused Grupo Atlacomulco of working against human rights in Mexico, by arguing against implementing human rights guarantees to groups such as criminals and women.

Most people think of bribery when they hear the word corruption, but bribery is peanuts compared to the corruption involved in  illicit and illegal contracts, cost overruns, contracts for "ghost projects", and other shenanigans that the Atlacomulco Group have engaged in.  (when AMLO  is asked how he will get the money for all the social programs on his agenda, he answers that he will get if from rooting out corruption.

Example;  When the govt. issues a contract to a oligarch to build a toll road that should pay for itself in 7 or 8 years but the oligarch is authorized to collect all the tolls for the next 40 years.  We are talking billions of dollars from these sweetheart deals.  As AMLO says "there is money out there and where there is money there is corruption and we will examine all those contracts for cronyism and corruption).

WHY AND HOW DID THIS HUGE DRAMATIC EVENT (the election) IN MEXICO'S HISTORY HAPPEN?   

election night at the plaza

more supporters pour into plaza

AMLO waves at croud on victory night

There are several answers to that question.  Some pundits (including here on BB) have said that some of the citizens were "frustrated" with the current government because of the ongoing violence and corruption.  I think that is an understatement.  "some" was 30 million voters who were "furious", not "frustrated".  They wanted  and demanded a change.

Surprisingly the Trump factor did not have much influence on the election.  According to exit polls despite Trumps derogatory rhetoric against Hispanics in general and Mexicans more specifically, The Wall, and Trumps treatment of immigrants attempting to migrate to the US, Mexicans seemed to ignore him in their decisions on voting (with the exception of thousands of Mexican-Americans who drove or came to the border and crossed the border to vote for AMLO).

OBRADOR THE MAN

Without a doubt the candidate, AMLO, was the biggest factor in the Tsunami that swept across Mexico on July 1.  Most people outside of Mexico probably know that Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is the Mexican politician who ran for President twice before but this year won.



But they don't know much about the man himself or how much he is loved by much of the population.  His description of himself and who he is was wrapped up in these simple promises he made to the people in his victory speech on election night;  "I will never lie to you, I will never steal, and I will never betray the Mexican people".

Even his non supporters and critics acknowledge his honesty.  One pundit who has been critical of AMLO's policies said;  

“I don’t like his authoritarian streak and confrontational style.” But, he added, “he seems to me to be an honest man, which is a lot to say in these parts.”

“There has been nobody like him in modern Mexican politics,” political analyst Jesús Silva-Herzog Márquez has said.  . “What is happening here is not normal.”  At least part of what Silva-Herzog was talking about was the bond AMLO had built with the "the people".   Most of the crowds that would engulf him seemingly everywhere he went were poor and many living in poverty and some in extreme poverty.  When asked why the supported him the most common answers were "honest,” “tenacious,” and “of the people.”

 To give an idea how broad and deep his election was and that it wasn't just poor uneducated people consider this;  Lopez Obrador got 30 million votes in the election;  This is much more than any contemporary president.  Pena Nieto six years ago got 19 million. Calderon around the same, 18 million in 2006 and Fox got 15 million in 2000.

During the campaign there was a lot of media and pundit's fear that if AMLO  won the election the Mexican economy would crater.  (what with him being a socialist and progressive)  But he is also a pragmatist.  In the 2006 and 2012 election campaigns he did not court the business community.  This time he did and he promised that  he will respect the autonomy of the Central Bank, keep the country’s books balanced and inflation under control, and not raise taxes. But he has also insisted there will be no U-turn on his commitment to “put the poor first.”  Three days after the election AMLO met in a 3 hour closed door session with the most powerful business organizations in Mexico.

Attendees at that meeting were the President of Mexico Grupo, President of Banomex, Chairman of Televisa and Carlos Slim along with other equally prominent and powerful business men.

Some pundits have written that AMLO is seeking to drag Latin America’s second largest economy back into the past. His response to them : “If this horror we’re living now is what they want to give us in the future, the past is preferable,” AMLO told one recent rally.

His persuasive powers must have worked because after the meeting Reuters wrote that "Mexico's business chiefs praised Obrador after a prickly campaign.  The encounter between the powerful CCE (Business Coordinating Council) business lobby and Lopez Obrador comes as markets took the election of the self-styled radical in stride. At a news conference, CCE director Juan Pablo Castanon and Lopez Obrador said their meeting was characterized by certainty and trust.

The money markets must have liked the outcome of the election because the first week after the election the Mexican peso had it's best week in 6 years on the currency exchange markets.   The peso’s value against the greenback increased by 3.92% last week, its greatest single-week gain since December 2011.  The 3.92% surge also made the Mexican peso the best performing emerging nations currency last week.  Living in Mexico but my income coming from the US I watch the currency markets very closely.  I think they are a better harbinger of the economic health of an economy than the stock markets.  (to the reader who posted a comment here on BB the week before the election that he had "unloaded all his pesos" and bought dollars and euros.  you have my condolences)


The entire election may best described as emotional and not political.  The people were less interested in his policies than their firm conviction that he is a good man who can fix a broken government. 

AMLO supporter tears of joy.  The people love him.

The son of shopkeepers, López Obrador grew up in the waterlogged plains of the southeastern state of Tabasco.  Even though he is considered an outsider (by the political elite) AMLO has been a politician all of his adult life.

His political career began in the 70's when he joined PRI, the only significant political party in Mexico at the time.   He became an organizer for PRI and soon joined a faction within PRI that disagreed with leadership and worked to reform PRI from within. 

AMLO IN THE 80'

One of his supporters remembers when she was in a group of volunteers he was organizing in Tabasco that as the meeting closed he told the group (mostly college kids) "Do not try to buy anyone's vote,  We don't do that"  She remembers that in  casual conversation when the meeting was over someone asked him what his plans and ambitions were working for PRI.    He told the group that "one day I will be President of Mexico".  AMLO's core of supporters (in today's lexicon his "base") that have been loyal to him for 30 or 40 years was born and has grown from meetings such as that one.

When PRI began to adopt neo-liberal  policies of globalism and neglecting the needs of the people AMLO left PRI in the late 80's and helped found the PRD party He was the PRD candidate in the 2006 and 2012 elections .  In 2014 after the horrific tragedy involving what came to be known as the missing 43 (students from a teachers school that were disappeared and murdered) and no one in the opposition stood up to PRI for it's dastardly cover=up of what really happened AMLO got disgusted with all political parties and left PRD.  He felt all the parties were corrupt.  So he decided that he would create his own party that would only be accountable to him.  So Morena was born and in just 4 years it swept him into the Presidency.  Unheard of in politics. 

 The president-elect is no orator or political showman, but he does exude authenticity and conviction in a country where most politicians are assumed to be cynical opportunists.  One of those convictions is his self-confidence in his power of persuasion.

One of his aides tells a story which illustrates that self-confidence.  During his campaign they were traveling by car to an event in a small town out in the middle of nowhere in a torrential rain and the car had flat tire.  AMLO got out of the car and flagged down a Volkswagen Beetle with 2 men in it and asked for ride.  They had been following his every move since the start of the campaign.  He knew they were spies for one of his rivals.  His aide asked if he thought it was a good idea and was safe for him to be commuting with spies from the opposition.  AMLO responded "It is no problem.  They are just human beings and someday they will come over to our side."  And he rode off with spies  to the campaign event.  (he didn't say but I guess the aide got out in the downpour of rain and changed the tire and proceeded to the event). 

He has promised the people that he will lead  Mexico’s deepest transformation since its 1910 revolution but without the violence.  His entire platform as a candidate has consisted of 3 basic core principles;  Root out corruption in government; reduce violence; and reduce poverty, especially among farmers and agricultural workers.  He firmly believes those 3 goals are interrelated.

Obrador was criticized during the campaign for not disclosing details of how he was going to achieve his goals.  In the last 12 years he has visited every municipality (like counties in US) in Mexico at least twice visiting with community leaders, business people, organizations of farmers, teachers, bankers, and just about any group that would sit down with him and discuss their ideas for solutions to the problems in their communities. Real grass roots feedback.  So he has a vast amount of knowledge or problems and possible solutions. 

What most people don't know is that he has teams of experts with knowledge of corruption, violence, and poverty combing Mexico for months before the election doing much the same thing.  His plan is to sit down with the teams and with his knowledge and their input develop the details before he takes office on Dec. 1.

There is no one single simple solution to any of the 3 goals he want to achieve.  There will be many approaches and plans implemented.  His proposed Secretary of the Treasury has already drawn up a plan to help eliminate corruption government purchasing.  It will be based on a model much like the retail giant Amazon uses.   A data base will be established for vendors that sell to the govt. (they will be vetted) and prices negotiated by a dept in the Treasury.  Any governmental entity that wants to make a purchase must go through the procedures set up in that Amazon model where the the agency will have options of what company to purchase from (price is already set).  The purchase application will be examined and if approved the purchase will be monitored to ensure that the purchase is used as set forth in the application.  Currently there are millions of dollars lost through "kickbacks", "ghost companies", diversion of materials from one project to another, etc.

He has already promised more modest proposals such as cutting his salary in half.  Continuing to live in his modest house and turning the "official residence of the President" Los Pinos into a public park for the people to enjoy.  He wants to eliminate or greatly reduce the pensions of high government officials.  Currently when a member of Congress leaves his position in Congress and retires he receives a pension equal to his salary in Congress even if he has only served one term.


He also pledges to sell off the presidential planes and helicopters  and take commercial flights instead and use the proceeds to help the poor.   Asked by an interviewer during the campaign what he would do if his flight was delayed on the way to a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, he replied: “I will be late.”

AMNESTY AND CURBING VIOLENCE

I'll start with the elephant in the room, amnesty.

Probably the most frequent criticism of AMLO is the claim that he is going to give amnesty to the cartels and the cartel capos and all the killers.  I have followed AMLO's campaign even before it was a official campaign.  And everything I can find that he has said since he became the front runner in the campaign and it was obvious he was going to win and I have never seen a statement from him that he would give amnesty to cartel leaders. 

What I have seen is he has said repeatedly that everything is on the table.  Taken in context   Andrés Manuel López Obrador floated the idea of an amnesty for drug cartel kingpins, saying he wanted a dialog on the drug war.  At the time (Dec. 2017) he said that political maneuvering had already begun for the 1 July 2018 presidential election, but none of the parties or potential candidates had made curbing the violence a central plank of their platform.  As he said he wanted to create a dialog about reducing violence.  “If it is necessary … we will talk about granting amnesty so long as the victims and their families are willing,” he said.  

He later told reporters: “We’ll propose it. I’m analyzing it. What I can say is that we will leave no issue without discussion if it has to do with peace and tranquility.”  He certainly succeeded in creating a dialog when all the other candidates didn't want to talk about reducing violence because it was such a difficult problem to solve.  

Out of that dialog he wanted to create came a proposal that would offer amnesty for those that were incarcerated for less serious crimes that did not involve violence.   Many of those had received sentences that were disproportionate to the the crime for which they were convicted. 

I said earlier that he firmly believes that his 3 basic agendas, reducing corruption, reducing violence and reducing poverty are inter-related.  A study done a couple of years ago showed that 85% of inmates in prison had not completed high school.   

Many of those low level offenders that would receive amnesty would have to meet certain conditions or they would would go back to jail.  One of those conditions would be that would enroll in a similar to a program that would be offered to "nini's" (young people not in school and without a job.)

AMLO calls the program “becarios sí, sicarios no” (scholars yes, assassins no).  Many "ninis" drop out of school because of poverty and they needed to work to help support their families and then they couldn't get a job or if the did it didn't last long and they were unemployed and couldn't find another.  Others dropped out not because of poverty but just because they knew there were no good jobs for them in the labor market so why continue in school.  All of those "ninis" are prime targets for recruitment by the cartels.  A big labor pool for the cartels.

AMLO is proposing a massive social program to grant scholarships, grants, or stipends to finish high school, enroll in trade schools or universities to young people without a job and to those freed from prison under his amnesty plan for low level offenders.  And they would be guaranteed a job on completion of the program.   He thinks the business community will work with him for some jobs in the private sector (several leaders in the business community  have agreed to apprenticeship programs) and some jobs are currently with the government.  



He is also pursuing an idea of creating some new govt. jobs through some programs similar to FDR's programs created during the Great Depression of the 1930's  like the CCC (Civilian Conservation Corp) and WPA (Public Works Administration).  One proposal is for reforestation of the thousands of acres decimated by illegal logging.  It is estimated that it would take 14 million trees and 7 years to reforest  those acres.  If some of it was in native trees for logging and some fruit trees to benefit the farmers, all the better. 

It would provide lots of jobs and pay for itself in time.  

The program AMLO calls “becarios sí, sicarios no” would hurt the cartels by reducing their labor pool from which they recruit.  It would help the economy and help reduce poverty by providing jobs. It is part of a framework that he believes is necessary to fight crime and violence.  His philosophy is that you can't fight violence with violence.  It just creates more violence, arguing that the drug war needs to be approached with a framework that includes a broader understanding of the problem.

Another example of building that framework are his plans to help farmers and the agricultural  industry.  

"Why do people grow poppies? Because they have nothing to eat," he said. "You can't fight violence with violence; this is an evil that we have to fight by doing good, and by creating economic growth, jobs and wellbeing." lfredo Acedo, spokesman for the National Union of Autonomous Regional Organizations (UNORCA), a confederation of campesino (farmer) groups has said that guaranteed prices and other kinds of support for rural producers proposed by Lopez Obrador could be key to fighting drug trafficking.  "He's been very clear, we have to resolve poverty and marginalisation, and that in itself will fix the problem of organized crime and drug trafficking to a large degree," he said.  "If the campesinos who grow opium poppies or marijuana, or work with drug trafficking in some other way, if the government offered them programs that guarantee their harvests will be bought and stored for fair prices that guarantee them subsistence - of course, they will stop working with drug traffickers

HOW CAN HE DO ALL THIS WHEN ALL HIS PREDECESSORS HAVE FAILED.  

Even his supporters recognize it will take time to accomplish his goals of reducing corruption, lessening violence and alleviating poverty and question whether he can do it in a six year term.  One answer he gives is I already have my cabinet in place and we will start working on Dec. when I am sworn in.  I start my day at 6AM with a meeting of my security team to work on violence issues.  Then I work a 16 hour day.  That is the equivalent to 2 days work for normal people.  So at the end of my 6 year term I will have worked the equivalent of 12 years.    

He plans to pay for all these programs by reduction of corruption.  Several studies have shown that Mexico loses up to 10% of GDP to corruption.   AMLO says recovering that or even a big part of it will pay for his programs without any tax increases.  He says "there's a lot of money out there and where there is money there is corruption and we will find it."

Lopez Obrador's many years spent seeking the Presidency were not motivated by seeking to acquire power, but to go down in History as having been a good President of Mexico.  There have only been a few that left that legacy.